Luck

Table of Contents:

“If there is dumb luck, then there is also smart luck.”

Though intuitive, viewing luck as a product of random chance is a hand-wavey ‘god of the gaps’ assumption. Luck cannot be purely random in a deterministic universe. It is a function of opportunity exposure; windfalls manifest as opportunities, often through other people. Position yourself to capture

Market exposure; passive returns; Treat everything as a numbers game, target social visibility & opportunity exposure as a metric; Littlewood’s Law; Law of large numbers

Like financial capital, social capital may also compound; market alpha/beta, active/passive returns. Hence, the future value of social capital is discounted due to the opportunity cost of not gaining returns over the timespan; there is a time value of social capital.

See also:

Next Lean, evergreen, rolling release writing strategy
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Luck

Table of Contents:

“If there is dumb luck, then there is also smart luck.”

Though intuitive, viewing luck as a product of random chance is a hand-wavey ‘god of the gaps’ assumption. Luck cannot be purely random in a deterministic universe. It is a function of opportunity exposure; windfalls manifest as opportunities, often through other people. Position yourself to capture

Market exposure; passive returns; Treat everything as a numbers game, target social visibility & opportunity exposure as a metric; Littlewood’s Law; Law of large numbers

Like financial capital, social capital may also compound; market alpha/beta, active/passive returns. Hence, the future value of social capital is discounted due to the opportunity cost of not gaining returns over the timespan; there is a time value of social capital.

See also:

Next Lean, evergreen, rolling release writing strategy

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